Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation

Combinatorial Computational Approaches to Identify Tetracycline Derivatives as Flavivirus Inhibitors

Limited structural information of drug targets, cellular toxicity possessed by lead compounds, and large amounts of potential leads are the major issues facing the design-oriented approach of discovering new leads. In an attempt to tackle these issues, we have developed a process of virtual screening based on the observation that conformational rearrangements of the dengue virus envelope protein are essential for the mediation of viral entry into host cells via membrane fusion. Screening was based solely on the structural information of the Dengue virus envelope protein and was focused on a target site that is presumably important for the conformational rearrangements necessary for viral entry. To circumvent the issue of lead compound toxicity, we performed screening based on molecular docking using structural databases of medical compounds. To enhance the identification of hits, we further categorized and selected candidates according to their novel structural characteristics. Finally, the selected candidates were subjected to a biological validation assay to assess inhibition of Dengue virus propagation in mammalian host cells using a plaque formation assay. Among the 10 compounds examined, rolitetracycline and doxycycline significantly inhibited plaque formation, demonstrating their inhibitory effect on dengue virus propagation. Both compounds were tetracycline derivatives with IC(50)s estimated to be 67.1 µM and 55.6 µM, respectively. Their docked conformations displayed common hydrophobic interactions with critical residues that affected membrane fusion during viral entry. These interactions will therefore position the tetracyclic ring moieties of both inhibitors to bind firmly to the target and, subsequently, disrupt conformational rearrangement and block viral entry. This process can be applied to other drug targets in which conformational rearrangement is critical to function

Determinants of antibody persistence across doses and continents after single-dose rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination for Ebola virus disease: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV) vaccine expressing the Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV) glycoprotein is efficacious in the weeks following single-dose injection, but duration of immunity is unknown. We aimed to assess antibody persistence at 1 and 2 years in volunteers who received single-dose rVSV-ZEBOV in three previous trials. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we prospectively followed-up participants from the African and European phase 1 rVSV-ZEBOV trials, who were vaccinated once in 2014-15 with 300 000 (low dose) or 10-50 million (high dose) plaque-forming units (pfu) of rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine to assess ZEBOV glycoprotein (IgG) antibody persistence. The primary outcome was ZEBOV glycoprotein-specific IgG geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) measured yearly by ELISA compared with 1 month (ie, 28 days) after immunisation. We report GMCs up to 2 years (Geneva, Switzerland, including neutralising antibodies up to 6 months) and 1 year (Lambaréné, Gabon; Kilifi, Kenya) after vaccination and factors associated with higher antibody persistence beyond 6 months, according to multivariable analyses. Trials and the observational study were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (Geneva: NCT02287480 and NCT02933931; Kilifi: NCT02296983) and the Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry (Lambaréné PACTR201411000919191). FINDINGS: Of 217 vaccinees from the original studies (102 from the Geneva study, 75 from the Lambaréné study, and 40 from the Kilifi study), 197 returned and provided samples at 1 year (95 from the Geneva study, 63 from the Lambaréné, and 39 from the Kilifi study) and 90 at 2 years (all from the Geneva study). In the Geneva group, 44 (100%) of 44 participants who had been given a high dose (ie, 10-50 million pfu) of vaccine and who were seropositive at day 28 remained seropositive at 2 years, whereas 33 (89%) of 37 who had been given the low dose (ie, 300 000 pfu) remained seropositive for 2 years (p=0·042). In participants who had received a high dose, ZEBOV glycoprotein IgG GMCs decreased significantly between their peak (at 1-3 months) and month 6 after vaccination in Geneva (p0·05). Neutralising antibodies seem to be less durable, with seropositivity dropping from 64-71% at 28 days to 27-31% at 6 months in participants from the Geneva study. INTERPRETATION: Antibody responses to single-dose rVSV-ZEBOV vaccination are sustained across dose ranges and settings, a key criterion in countries where booster vaccinations would be impractical. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust and Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Lassa Seropositivity in Inhabitants of the Forest Region of Guinea: A Cross-Sectional Study

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa, mainly transmitted to humans by multimammate rats. Several modes of virus transmission are suspected: aerosolisation of the virus, contact with infected rodent excreta, and consumption of rodent meat. Person-to-person transmission also occurs via contact with body fluids of infected persons (blood, urine) and is responsible for numerous outbreaks, mostly in healthcare facilities. Our objective was to precisely describe risk factors for Lassa fever in both rural and urban communities of forest Guinea. For each participant, a standardized questionnaire was completed and a blood sample tested for Lassa virus antibodies. A total of 1424 subjects were interviewed and 977 blood samples tested. The prevalence of Lassa virus antibodies was estimated at 12.9% and 10.0% in rural and urban areas, respectively. The two risk factors were: to have, in the past twelve months, undergone an injection, or lived with someone displaying a haemorrhage. Contrary to our expectation, no factors related to contact with rodents were identified. It is still probable that transmission occurs via indirect contact between rodents and humans in households, but our results highlight the importance of person-to-person transmission via close contact and nosocomial exposure

Comparison of Argentinean Saint Louis Encephalitis Virus Non-Epidemic and Epidemic Strain Infections in an Avian Model

St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV, Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in South America, with human SLEV encephalitis cases reported in Argentina and Brazil. Genotype III strains of SLEV were isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in Cordoba, Argentina in 2005, during the largest SLEV outbreak ever reported in South America. The present study tested the hypothesis that the recent, epidemic SLEV strain exhibits greater virulence in birds as compared with a non-epidemic genotype III strain isolated from mosquitoes in Santa Fe Province 27 years earlier. The observed differences in infection parameters between adult House sparrows (Passer domesticus) that were needle-inoculated with either the epidemic or historic SLEV strain were not statistically significant. However, only the House sparrows that were infected with the epidemic strain achieved infectious-level viremia titers sufficient to infect Cx. spp. mosquitoes vectors. Furthermore, the vertebrate reservoir competence index values indicated an approximately 3-fold increase in amplification potential of House sparrows infected with the epidemic strain when pre-existing flavivirus-reactive antibodies were present, suggesting the possibility that antibody-dependent enhancement may increase the risk of avian-amplified transmission of SLEV in South America